The man credited for the rise of former two-time world boxing champion Luisito Espinosa sincerely believes Erik Morales won’t make the weight in his upcoming fight with Manny Pacquiao.

At the most, according to veteran boxing analyst Hermie Rivera, the two will battle it out at a catch weight of 132 pounds when they meet for the third time at the Thomas Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada on Nov. 18 (Nov 19. Manila time)

“Mahihirapan siya,” said Rivera, referring to Morales’ effort to trim down to the super-featherweight limit of 130 pounds.

“Assuming he makes the weight, pero mahihirapang maka-recover yan.”

During the 30-day pre-fight weigh-in, the 30-year old native of Tijuana came in at 142 lbs. giving him less than a month to shed the unwanted pounds and make the limit.

“That’s the reason why Bob Arum (who promotes Morales and the fight itself under his Top Rank Promotions) is moving heaven and earth to save the match by having Manny fight Erik at 132 lbs.” said Rivera, the manager of Espinosa when he reigned as World Boxing Association (WBA) bantamweight champion in the late 80’s and early 90’s.

“They won’t mind paying the fine,” he said , aware of the special clause in the fight contract stipulating that Morales pays $500,000 for every excess poundage.

Rivera compared the case of Morales to a similar experience with Espinosa during his futile comeback attempt in 2002 against former US Olympian Zahir Raheem in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

“We we’re three-pounds over the weight (126 pounds) a day before the fight. But Louie made it by doing six rounds of Shadow Boxing and skipping ropes,” he recalled.

“We had a great start during the fight. Luisito even knocked Raheem down in the second round. Pero pagdating ng fifth, naubusan na kami. Raheem won that fight with an 8th round stoppage,” said Rivera.

Incidentally, Raheem also dealt Morales a second beating when they fought a year ago at the Staples Center in Los Angeles by scoring a unanimous decision win.

Rivera also remembered that Espinosa was over the weight limit when he fought Khaokur Galaxy for the WBA championship in 1989 in Bangkok, but was able to tip the scale at 118 pounds through ‘diet and rigorous workouts.”

“Besides, Espinosa kayoed Galaxy in just 90 seconds, so walang naging problema dun,” he stressed.

A similar weight issue hounded the Espinosa camp when he defended his title at the Araneta Coliseum two years later against Israel Contreras of Venezuela in a match won by the Venezuelan after knocking out the highly drained Filipino in the fifth round.

“Also Luisito had been newly married, kaya hindi rin ganun ka-concentrated ‘yung training nya,” Rivera said.

“But I’ve seen him (Espinosa) suffered trying to make the weight in several of his fights.”

He sees the same debacle happening to Morales.

“The drastic reduction in weight could take it’s toll on Morales and that’s the most difficult part. How will Morales be able to retain his power and stamina in the late rounds?” Rivera added.

Weighed-in by the WBC, Pacquiao came in at 138 pounds, a weight which doesn’t even bother Rivera.

“At the most, Manny may be 136 pounds now. And I think kaya niyang i-program ‘yung weight niya, so there’s no problem there at all,” he said.

Rivera, boxing man and part-time broadcaster expects Morales to come out fast right on opening bell in his attempts to end the fight early or pile up the necessary points.

But he sees the Filipino lefty from General Santos City breaking Morales apart early on, before delivering the coup de grace in the later rounds, in the same manner Pacquiao did when he scored a 10th round technical knockout over the Mexican warrior in their rematch last January also in Las Vegas.